Growth below target
PAKISTAN’S latest GDP figures offer a picture of modest recovery. A projected growth rate of 3.7pc for the current fiscal falls short of the government’s original 4pc target. This is slightly less than even the lower bound of the State Bank’s projected range of 3.75-4.75pc . But it is still an improvement over the previous year’s 3.18pc expansion. Thankfully, the SBP anticipates growth, albeit tepid, during much of next year in case energy prices stay elevated and the Gulf crisis lingers. That said, the numbers show that the economy continues its struggle to break out of the low-growth trap. Structural issues are constraining long-term, faster growth prospects without overheating the economy. In this context, even modest growth is welcome after four years of economic instability, external financing crises and inflationary shocks, and despite oil price hikes triggered by the Gulf conflict. The economy’s size has increased to over $452bn while per capita...